A quick note on probabilities, life and luck

Many people in the world can be considered optimists who can always see the good in a situation and always expect the best. Thinking optimistically, however, can have certain drawbacks. Always expecting the best can leave a person open to disappointment when a situation doesn't end well and sometimes this disappointment can be severe. People who are overly optimistic are at a higher risk, or have a greater probability, of disappointment. Optimism does have its benefits. Optimists seem to have a better demeanor, regardless of the outcomes they experience, i.e. even though a negative outcome may have occurred, they are quickly encouraged by a new scenario and the possibility of a success.

Other people in the world can be labeled pessimists. Pessimists, the opposite of optimists, always expect the a negative conclusion to any scenario, i.e. they expect the worse. The costs and benefits of pessimism are different than those of optimism. Pessimists are rarely ever disappointed with an outcome because they have already prepared themselves for disappointment, and likewise, they are pleasantly surprised when an outcome is positive. This can be seen as a benefit, because too much disappointment can even affect the supreme optimist to the point where they can become disheartened. However, the general demeanor of these people is often unpleasant, as they only expect negative outcomes. This can affect the mood of people surrounding pessimists (which itself can affect the pessimist), but also a lifetime of pessimism doesn't seem the best choice.

I propose another class of people, of which I am a member and that class is the realist. Realists are neither strictly optimistic nor strictly pessimistic, but rather are they are conditionally both. Realists play the odds (probabilities), and depending on the most likely outcome of that "game" they will be either optimistic or pessimistic. I am a big fan of game theory (perhaps best known by "A Beautiful Mind" based on the story of a game theorist named Nash), so life seems like a series of games, where my best choice in a game is influenced by the other players in the game. Simply, my best choice is influenced by whatever is happening around my choice. Therefore, before I become optimistic or pessimistic, I "predict" what the probability of me winning is, and if the probability of a success is high, I would be optimistic, but conversely, if the probability of success is low, then I would be pessimistic.

With this in mind, I want to consider life and luck for a few lines. First, I assume that we agree there is an element of "luck" in life. Luck can be defined where a success (or failure) was unlikely, but nevertheless occurred rather than the other outcome. For example, if I was drawing a random card from a normal deck of cards and I said, “I am going to draw a queen of hearts" and I did, then I would consider that luck. The probability was roughly .02 (1/52), but that outcome was achieved by "luck."

As an aside, if someone were very deterministic in their mindset, then they might say that luck doesn't exist, because everything occurs by "divine appointment." I understand this is more of a theological argument (that I don't want to delve into), but quickly this is the idea that a higher power (deity most often) as already decided our future, and as such there can be no surprises, and all probabilities are equal to 1 or 0 because they either will or will not occur. I would argue there is still luck in a human life because we have no knowledge of the future, and as such, we can only assign probabilities to outcomes, and therefore, my definition of luck is valid.

Now, I would think that luck in life is distributed randomly, but I am not sure that is the case. The old saying is that "When it rains, it pours," and this is an interesting adage because it suggests that bad luck might accompany more bad luck. Therefore, is luck independent? Well athletes go through patches of "good form" or "bad form", and usually they stay in that form for a few games (or some duration of time) , and then finally they break their form. If this is the case, do individuals have some effect on luck? Another saying that is applicable is that "Fortune favors the bold," and this statement has some significance to my discussion. Fortune, which can be dubbed good luck, favors those who try. Likewise, Wayne Gretzky was credited with saying that "You miss every shot you don't take," and that is correct also. To have good luck, one must attempt a decision, or "play a game." This might ultimately favor those who slightly favor optimism, but luck by definition is usually a losing cause, so the best approach is still be a conditional optimist. For me, the ultimate driver of a decision is, what is the benefit for a win multiplied by the probability of winning versus the cost of losing multiplied by the probability of losing? If the benefit is greater, then take the chance, and likewise if the cost is greater, it may be best to "live to fight another day."

I wanted to end this post by quoting some lines from the Grateful Dead's Terrapin Station, but I think a post soon to come may analyze that song line by line and look at its significance. I hope I haven't left this post unresolved, but then again, many things in life remain unresolved... and I bid you goodnight! (Grateful Dead humor if you aren't familiar.)